Gus Dur is The Key in Indonesian Politics

GUS DUR IS THE KEY IN INDONESIAN POLITICS

Gus Dur a.k.a Abdurrahman Wahid, the former President of Indonesia is a unique character in current Indonesian politics. His uniqueness lies not only in his erratic personality but also in his social and political position. He is an ulama (Islamic clergyman) with an honorific title of Kyai but in 2001 as President he was impeached by MPR (People’s Consultative assembly) for corruption charges. Besides he is also considered as incompetence for Presidential office. His foreign policy had no clear concept. So does his development plan. In 2004 general election the commission on election forbade him to take part in the election for health reasons as he was almost blind. His party, however, got twelve million voters. Today once again he has to face a hard reality. He lose to his own nephew, Muhaimin Iskandar, in an internal conflict in his party PKB. The court and the ministry of law and human rights decided that Muhaimin is the legitimate leader of PKB that may take part in 2009 election. So once again he cannot take part in the general election.

Beside the legal factor, however, Gus Dur is still a prominent figure. There is no doubt that PKB power lies mostly in him. For millions of traditional muslim who are members and supporters of the biggest muslim organization in Indonesia-Nahdlatul Ulama, Gus Dur is number one ulama. Their view is still so traditional that they consider hereditary factor as an important element in leadership. As the direct grandson of the founder of Nahdlatul Ulama, Gus Dur is, in their view, their legitimate leader. It is him, and not his party that they will vote. Due to demographic factors he may get more than twelve million voters in 2009. The number may decrease a little due to the conflict but many people believe the majority of voters will vote for him. In case he cannot run for president for any reasons, his millions of followers is a promising determinant.

Today it is this factor that politicians look for. Given the tight competition among big names twelve million voters or at least a major part of it, is a promising figure. No wonder that Sutrisno Bachir, the chairman of PAN, and Yusril Ihza Mahendra, the former minister of law approcahed Gus Dur to ask for his endorsement.

What will happen next is difficult to predict. As mentioned earlier that Gus Dur’s personality is erratic it is very hard to predict what he will decide. Perhaps he will decide something but then he will do the contrary to it. The social reality is another factor. Gus Dur’s supporters are members of NU while PAN’s supporters are members of Muhammadiyya. There is a sharp social gap between the two groups. They are like water and oil-insoluble. If this factor is dominant, then most likely Gus Dur will endorse Yusril Ihza Mahendra. The other possibility is he will tell his suppoters not to vote for anyone or any party.

In case he decide to endorse anyone or any party, he will be a key to win the 2009 presidential election. But if none pleases him, he will choose to influence his supporters not o vote to anyone. Either way he chooses he is still the key.